"Virginians learned a harsh lesson from the recession of 1990-91 when a revenue drop of 15 percent required that some programs be cut by as much as one-third so that the state could get through the recession without a tax increase -- a feat accomplished by only one other state.

To prevent the same thing from happening again, Virginia voters in 1992 approved a constitutional amendment to establish a 'rainy day' fund. During the past several years of a booming economy, almost $1 billion was set aside in that fund.

Clearly, it has been raining since March, with a recession exacerbated by the Sept. 11 events. With Virginia facing a budget deficit approaching $1.5 billion in the current fiscal year, it may be necessary to dip into the rainy day fund, only half of which may be spent in any given year.

But just as Virginia was setting money aside in a responsible way, some politicians misused the increased revenues for political gain. The 'no car tax' campaign by candidate Jim Gilmore is a classic. Pick an unpopular tax, underestimate the cost of cutting it, promise to pay for it out of economic growth with no pain to anyone, ignore the business cycle, and you have a winning campaign.

The one-time-a-year payment and the high rate at which the car tax had risen as local governments struggled with limited revenue sources made the car tax highly unpopular and an ideal target for a political campaign. The estimates of $600 million made its repeal sound doable with the double-digit revenue increases that were occurring during that time. The true costs -- closer to $1.2 billion to $1.5 billion -- were ignored.

And with Virginia's short-term approach to budgeting, there was no need to project the effects on future budgets and services when the economy hit a recession. The ploy got Gilmore the governorship, but it left Virginia's budget a shambles.

If the recession earlier in the decade showed the need for a rainy day fund, the current recession clearly demonstrates the need for tax reform and for long-term budget forecasting.

Virginia needs to pass a constitutional amendment repealing the car tax lest its original author or another politician try to ride it to another term as governor. The relentless campaign against the car tax makes it infeasible as a revenue source in future, regardless of what rationale might have been used to support it in the past.

But the repeal needs to be part of a comprehensive tax reform that will produce the revenues to meet the state's needs. Tax fairness, the split of revenues between local and state government and adequacy of revenue should be addressed in one major effort.

Gov.-elect Mark Warner has promised a tax reform package by 2003. But the General Assembly will need the political will to pass it, and the public will need to understand and accept it.

As the effects of the recession become more obvious, Virginians need to get serious about comprehensive tax reform -- including amending the state's constitution one more time in order to withstand these changes in the future." (Kenneth R. Plum, The Washington Post, January 6, 2002) Kenneth R. Plum, a Democrat, represents Reston in the Virginia House of Delegates.