George,

I used to teach in an Master’s program that trained students for jobs in the polling “industry.” I would always point out that “public opinion” could be anything they wanted it to be. It depended on how the questions were worded.

A recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll is a case in point. They asked two questions (quoted below) which led to the following conclusion:
Only 36% think Barack Obama’s health care plan is a good idea, yet 56% favor it!
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“From what you have heard about Barack Obama’s health care plan, do you think his plan is a good idea or a bad idea? If you do not have an opinion either way, please say so.”

Good idea 36% Bad idea 42% No opinion 17%

“Now I am going to tell you more about the health care plan that President Obama supports and please tell me whether you would favor or oppose it.

The plan requires that health insurance companies cover people with pre-existing medical conditions. It also requires all but the smallest employers to provide health coverage for their employees, or pay a percentage of their payroll to help fund coverage for the uninsured.
Families and individuals with lower- and middle- incomes would receive tax credits to help them afford insurance coverage. Some of the funding for this plan would come from raising taxes on wealthier Americans.”

Favor 56% Oppose 38% Depends, Not sure 6%
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The NBC/Wall Street Journal poll also asked the following question:

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“Please tell me which ONE statement you agree with more on the issue of creating a new public health plan administered by the federal government.

Statement A: Some people say it would lower health care costs because it would compete with private health plans. This new public plan would provide coverage for the uninsured and all Americans would have an option for quality affordable health care.

Statement B: Other people say that patients might not always have access to their choice of doctors and the government would lower costs by limiting medical treatment options and decisions that should be made instead by patients and doctors.
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The majority (52%) chose Statement B. Apparently, the propaganda of the opponents of health care reform have had an impact on a jittery public.

Of course, Statement B is not what is actually being proposed in any of the House or Senate versions. Rather, it presents the talking points that opponents to health care reform have bandied about. Such false propaganda should not be included in a respectable poll. It comes close to push polling. (None of the proposals for a public option include reducing choice of doctors. There has been talk of some sort of independent board that would use medical evidence to sort out the better treatments from the non-effective treatments, but that board has been proposed for Medicare, not the new public plan that would compete with private plans.)

I would love to ask the following question in a poll:

Do you favor or oppose a health insurance system that sells policies which not all doctors are willing to participate in, limits a treatment to that pre-approved by a bureaucrat even though your doctor thinks the treatment is best for you, and the choice of the policy is up to your employer, not you?

When are we going to get some honesty into the dialogue on health care reform?

David RePass (Electronic mail, August 2, 2009)